With the 2015 general elections becoming more interesting and tension heightening more than ever before, even in the light of the recent postponement by INEC for security reasons, ANASTACIA ELUWA in Asaba looks at the factors that may determine who wins the presidential election in Delta state
As the presidential election in the country draws nearer, 14 political parties have made know their presidential candidates preparatory to the election. The battle for the presidential seat in the next month’s presidential election is obviously in the final stage before the recent postponement of the election.
Despite the availability of 14 candidates jostling for Nigeria’s plum job, there are only two serious contenders; President Goodluck Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, and General Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress, APC. Either of these two candidates is expected to win the 2015 presidential election.
Delta state is among the 10 states with the highest number of voters and therefore is key to determining who wins the presidential contest. What then are the odds and factors that may favour who wins the presidential polls in the state?
Party Structure:
Delta state for over 16 years now has remained a PDP state. There was never a time, PDP lost in governorship seat let alone in the presidential seat. This is because former Governor James Ibori who has been a firm leader of PDP had worked strongly to ensure PDP victories both in the state and the nation. He had made sure he did not allow opposition parties take the lead, hence as governor, he gave grants to opposition parties for them to survive, this had made opposition parties to adopt PDP governorship candidates in 2007 and 2011 elections as their adopted candidate. Since 1999 till now, nothing has changed as most of the opposition parties in the state except APC and Labour party have adopted Senator Ifeanyi Okowa as their governorship candidate and Dr. Goodluck Jonathan as their presidential candidate because of their track records, experience and commitment in their past and present positions in the country.
The broad PDP structure in Delta state is part of the factor that would add to the credit of the party for more votes as many party faithful who command the respect of the public would still draw more support to the party. The party has more support base across the state; this is an indication for getting more value, more support and votes for the presidential candidate of the party.
Governor Uduaghan factor
Governor Emmanuel Uduaghan had severally appealed to Deltans, even before the campaign, to give support to President Jonathan as he is their brother and friend. He has canvassed for Mr. President’s re-election in 2015. Dr. Uduaghan is mostly referred to as Dr. Jonathan’s boy in Delta state because he used every opportunity in events of the state to canvass support for the president, which may eventually translate into election victory for the PDP in the presidential election. Even in the heat of the politics, he withdrew from contesting the senate for peace to reign in the state PDP and to equally maintain a one united PDP in the state.
Again at the presidential rally, Governor Uduaghan who drew massive crowd of PDP supporters to the event in Asaba assured Mr President of the votes of all Deltans for the PDP, noting that President Jonathan deserves re-election because of the success of his human capital development programmes, which has seen Nigerian youths excelling in sports, entertainment, education, among other fields.
Dr. Uduaghan stated that Deltans were among the greatest beneficiaries of the Human Capital Development programmes of President Jonathan because “more than 80 per cent of those in the entertainment industry – actors, comedians, musicians, and those in sports are from Delta State. That is why our girls won gold medals at the Commonwealth games”, he stressed.
This is also seen through the various adoptions of President Jonathan: the leaders under the aegis of the Delta Political and Business Leaders Forum (DPBLF) through its spokesperson, Chief Magnus Okonkwo in a statement in Asaba listed unity of the nation, diversification of the economy, job creation, gender equality, road maintenance, modernization and expansion of railways, revamping of airports, airstrips across the country, installing up to date navigational aids, encouragement of private airlines, development of effective and true mass transit system, giving maximum support to farmers and massive inflow of foreign investments as achievements of President Jonathan.
“President Jonathan made giant breakthroughs in a number of areas particularly in the educational sector, an achievement that is unequaled in the history of the country. His other breakthroughs include; total support to agriculture, health, industries, works, housing and commerce. And President Jonathan will ensure an improved economy and security”, he added.
Ethnicity/ Religion:
In terms of religion, the South-South, especially Delta state is predominantly a Christian state and this could play a crucial role in how people will vote. On the other hand, ethnicity is one huge factor that will favour the presidential candidate of the PDP since he is from the South-South region.
Jonathan versus Buhari
How will the personalities of these two individuals attract some neutral voters? President Jonathan, despite several attempts by APC and other opposition parties to tarnish his image through the security situation in the Northern part of the country, he is still viewed in the state as the best candidate. This is as a result of his track records. Chief William Makinde, immediate past National Treasurer of PDP who hails from Oghara, Delta state said “the issue of Boko Haram that has claimed many lives was not started by President Goodluck Jonathan’s administration. It has been in existence and past administration never deemed it fit to address their demands. Today, APC and other opposition parties are using Boko Haram to campaign against his re-election, but he will still carry the day”.
Also, the monarchs in Delta state have on several occasions solicited for support of Mr. President from their subjects and it is most likely that their subjects will vote for President Jonathan at the polls. Some people were of the opinion that they will not like to have an ailing and aged president in order to avert the bad situation created by former President Musa Yar’dua who died in office. So President Jonathan is seen as younger and vibrant and this has added to his advantage over his opponent among the Delta voters. Equally, General Buhari is perceived in some quarters as vindictive and someone capable of dealing dissenting political voices.
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