The March 28 presidential election has been dubbed the election of all elections and described as an election for the soul of Nigeria. Whichever way the result of the election goes, there are possible fallouts looking into the political future of Nigeria; writes EMMA ALOZIE
Just about four days to the 2015 election, which has rightly or even wrongly been dubbed the most important election in Nigeria’s political history; all is set for either of Peoples Democratic Party’s President Goodluck Jonathan and All Progressives Congress’s General MuhammaduBuhari to emerge the winner.
Many commentators and analysts have come to conclude that never in recent history has so much been at stake going into a major election; Nigeria’s unity and stability being the major stakes.
However, whichever way the election goes, it is going to throw up some possible political scenarios either in the immediate future or in the distant future. With the emergence of the opposition APC, Nigeria has finally joined the league of democracies with two dominant political parties.
Historically, Nigerian voters have considered many other considerations before party in casting their votes. Ethno-religious sentiments are higher in the mind of an average Nigerian voter than party affiliations. This explains why out of the six geopolitical zones in Nigeria, every follower of Nigeria’s politics knows that the only zone that has not been taken or that is regarded as the swing zone is the South West.
Therefore with the South West leaning towards Buhari’s APC, what are the most likely effects of a Buhari victory with the help of South West? One, the South West must have broken a record by successfully aligning with the core north, a feat unknown to the zone’s political history. Two, in the event of a Buhari victory, it would have also answered one contentious question in the contemporary South West politics; who takes over from Pa Obafemi Awolowo as the zone’s political leader? This is a question where there is no consensus amongst South West opinion molders and leaders. So if Bola Ahmed Tinubu, former Lagos governor and national leader of the APC gets the zone to vote for Buhari, then the question would have been satisfactorily answered. Like Sule Lamido, Jigawa state governor said, “If the Yorubas vote for Buhari because their son is the national leader of the South-west, then it will prove that Bola Tinubu is the undisputed leader of the Yorubas. This is because his people have spoken and therefore hearkened to Tinubu’s directives.”
Three, Buhari’s victory with the South West votes may likely give the core north a long term advantage over the south. What this means is that the southern cohesion that saw Obasanjo through the 2003 election and Jonathan in 2011 must have been broken with the South West being a standalone zone and the South-South and South East likely to form one huge voting bloc in the future.
If such scenario arises, the core Muslim north may continue to reap from the ensuing political rift that may likely arise between the South West on one hand and South-South and South East on the other hand. How? The permutation is simple. The core Muslim north has not voted for any other candidate when they have an option of voting one of their own at least since 1999. For instance, the only time the PDP won Kano State, the heart of the core north, was in 1999 when there were only Olu Falaye and Olusegun Obansanjo on the ballot papers. In 2003 when General Buhari joined the political fray, the PDP had never won the state again at the presidential level. What this means is that whenever the core Muslim north fields a candidate who satisfies their ethno-religious requirements, they stick with that candidate. This is quite instructive here because a candidate from the core north with a running mate from the South East, for instance, will likely win the election, if the other party cedes its ticket to the South West.
If the cohesion between the South-South and South-East continues whether Jonathan wins or not, the 16 million voters from these two zones will always decide who becomes the president post 2015, and in politics there will always be a payback time, which is to say if the South West goes the way of APC, denying the South-South another four years, the payback time may not be far too long in the future, especially whenever a South Westerner emerges the candidate of any of the two major political parties.
On the other hand, in the event of Jonathan’s victory, one huge lesson that may arise from there is that he (Jonathan) would have inadvertently reunited the old Eastern Nigeria and the old Mid-West, otherwise known as South East and South-South in contemporary political scene. With 16 million votes domiciled in these regions and another estimated 10 million of the indigenes of these two zones scattered in various parts of the country, these are regions that may determine the outcome of elections post Jonathan era.
Equally, with a Jonathan victory, the political landscape of the South West may not remain the same as the influence of Tinubu in the region may likely wane with the emergence of other power brokers in the region. Jonathan’s victory on March 28 may likely trigger a realignment of forces to lunch a final onslaught on the soul of the region and dislodge Tinubu. With younger forces like Governor Olusegun Mimiko of Ondo State and Governor Ayo Fayose of Ekiti State who have unequivocally aligned with President Jonathan, they may be waiting on the wings to use the federal might to dislodge the vice grip of Tinubu on the region, in the event that Jonathan wins reelection.
Jonathan’s victory on March 28 may likely open another chapter in Nigeria’s political history with his firm avowal to implement the recommendations of the National Conference he convoked last year. If the recommendations are implemented, Nigeria may be on its way to unleashing its potentials. Such recommendations as devolution of powers, state police, creation of more states, fiscal federalism, etc. have been identified by analysts as catalysts capable of lifting Nigeria from the doldrums of underdevelopment. There have been clamours for restructuring of the country especially from southern elements, who vehemently believe that the central government is too overloaded to allow for rapid development of other component parts of the federation, while some northern elements have preferred the status quo to remain.
On the other hand, if Buhari wins, the country is likely to remain unrestructured where the centre remains the sharing agent of oil resources. Because the APC boycotted the National Conference, it is most unlikely that a Buhari presidency would want to implement any recommendation of the conference thereby retaining all the clogs, according to analysts that have stunted the growth of Nigeria.