The report of the move by some members of the political machinery of late General Shehu Musa Yar’Adua, Peoples Democratic Movement, PDM, to apply to the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, for registration as a political party did not come to keen political observers as a surprise. The move to revive the near comatosed group began since last year in readiness for the politics of 2015.
Members of the group met in October 2012 in Abuja and at the end of the meeting, PDM members resolved to adhere to the dreams of its founding fathers. In a statement by PDM Protem Chairman and Secretary, Bode Ajewole and Murtala Yar’adua respectively, the group gave indication that is is out to recruit more members and will soon play more than a passing role on the political turf as it called on Nigerians to join the new PDM to “create an enabling and conducive environment for democracy, good governance and economic development in our country so that every citizen can lead a happy, secure and fulfilled life”.
As the politics of 2015 gathered fresh momentum early this year, members of the PDM met again on Tuesday 5th February 2013 at Shehu Musa Yar’Adua Centre, Abuja “as part of its ongoing effort to reposition itself to continue to be a leading player in the political development of Nigeria”. Sources close to members of the group revealed that the meeting was the first major step towards the transformation of the group into a political party. At the end of the meeting, which was attended by the national officers of the movement, State Coordinators, Women and Youth Leaders from the 36 States of the Federation and the Federal Capital Territory, they formally elected and inaugurated a new National Management Committee consisting of eight national officers to replace the existing National Steering Committee.
They also announced the formation of two new organs, a National Elders Committee and a National Caucus; the appointment and inauguration of State Coordinators, Youth and Women Leaders for the 36 States of the Federation and the FCT and the approval of a new zonal, state, senatorial and LGA Management structure across the country.
The group said in a communiqué issued after the meeting that “PDM is developing a clear roadmap for the entrenchment of profound national social, political and economic reforms which will lead to creating jobs, steady power supply, and improved security, transparent and credible elections and bring corruption in all its manifestations to an end”. The Movement also resolved to open discussions with the organizations of like mind, with a view to finding common grounds on issues of principle, policy and strategy.
When the news eventually broke that PDM has formally applied to INEC for registration all fingers pointed to the direction of former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, as the unseen hand behind the move to register yet another political party that will be slugging it out with the ruling Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, in 2015. Atiku was very quick in dispelling the rumour that he is behind the move to formally register PDM as a political party, though he admitted that his political soul mates and friends are behind the application sent to INEC.
Atiku said in a statement signed by the Head of his media team, Garba Shehu that while he remains a loyal PDP member his political associates are adults and he does not have the right or powers stop them from applying to formally register PDM as a political party and went ahead to give support saying the more registered political parties we have the merrier.
Part of the statement read: “Following press enquiries on the reported registration of the Peoples Democratic as a political party, the former Vice President said he would always welcome the expansion of the political space to accommodate all shades of opinions or political hue”.
According to him, freedom of association as enshrined in the constitution is the beauty of democracy and that he wouldn’t dissuade any of his followers from seeking a platform to promote their programmes.
In spite of his denials, political observers believe the move to register PDM is part of the strategies of the Adamawa State-born politician to ensure he contests the 2015 presidential election by all means. It is believed that Atiku’s associates dare not attempt to register PDM without the express permission of Atiku who is the de-facto leader of the movement. After the death of the founder of the movement, Shehu Yar’Adua, the responsibility of heading the group rested on Atiku, Shehu’s political godson. The PDM played key role in the formation of PDP and because of its impact in the party, Atiku was made the running mate to former President Olusegun Obasanjo in 1999 despite the fact that he already won election as the governor of Adamawa state.
It is believed in political circles that the exclusion of Atiku and some of his associates in the inner circle of PDP may have direct link to the move to register an alternative platform for the former vice president in case he loses the PDP ticket again in 2015. Atiku recently cried out that his name was omitted on the list of delegates that will participate in the August 31 special national convention, in addition to the fact that till date he has not been relisted among members of the party Board of Trustees, BoT, as provided for in PDP constitution despite the waver the party granted him when he rejoined the party from the now defunct Action Congress of Nigeria.
Political pundits say Atiku’s quest to contest the presidency in 2015 is a continuation of his long term dream of occupying the most powerful seat in the country. Atiku had ample opportunity of upstaging his former boss, Obasanjo in 2003 but he flunked the opportunity. According to them, Atiku was the most powerful individual in PDP, courtesy of the enormous impact of PDM at the formative stage of PDP. Atiku then had almost all the PDP governors and other elected officials in the three tiers lined up behind him. It was even reported that Obasanjo was compelled to kneel down to beg for his support in 2003 when PDP governors were rooting for him to contest the PDP ticket against Obasanjo.
The tide, however, turned against Atiku after Obasanjo got elected for his second term. Obasanjo employed the entire arsenal at his disposal to battle Atiku and his supporters, including some governors who were harassed, impeached and investigated, sometimes on trumped-up charges, because of their closeness to Atiku. The final showdown was when Obasanjo attempted to elongate his tenure through the infamous third term agenda, and Atiku joined progressive forces to frustrate him.
Having lost the bid to elongate his tenure, Obasanjo swore Atiku will never get PDP ticket on his watch. Frustrated by his boss, Atiku made the biggest blunder of his political career when he decided to dump PDP and went to form the Action Congress with Bola Ahmed Tinubu, a party under which he contested and lost the 2007 presidential election.
Though the AC, which later changed to the ACN, won some states particularly in the south-west, Atiku was seriously trounced by the PDP candidate, late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, younger brother of Atiku’s political mentor, Shehu Yar’Adua. Atiku even lost his Adamawa home state to the PDP. When it dawned on him that ACN lacks the structure and spread to win the presidency, Atiku moved to settle his scores with Obasanjo to pave way for his return to the PDP.
Political pundits questioned Atiku’s political prowess, dexterity and insight when he eventually dumped the ACN to return to the PDP. They argued that Atiku should have stayed back to nurture and expand the young party where he could easily pick up the party ticket to pursue his presidential ambition in future. But because he was in a hurry to become President, he rushed back to PDP. By the time he came back to PDP it was like a civil engineer that came back to live in a house he originally built which had undergone intensive redesign and renovation during his long absence. Atiku became a stranger in the house he built. Because he was on the other side during the 2007 general election, he did not play any role in installing any PDP Governor, Federal and State lawmakers or even ordinary Local Government Chairmen and Councillors. Subsequently, none of these important stakeholders in PDP owe Atiku any allegiance or obligation unlike the situation in PDP before he went to ACN. Rather, he was part of the ACN team that sponsored candidates against these same PDP elected officials before he defected back to the ruling party.
Having lost his hitherto very strong legion of followers and footsoldiers within PDP, Atiku was soon to realize what happens to a politician that goes into a contest with depleted constituency when he contested for the PDP ticket in 2011 with President Goodluck Jonathan. Indeed, PDP leaders had to bend backward to allow him to vie for the party ticket by granting him waver. Atiku went into the contest full blast and was able to manoeuvre former military president, Ibrahim Babangida, former National Security Adviser, General Mohammed Gusau and other northern presidential aspirants out of the race by emerging as the consensus candidate of the contraption called the Northern Political Leaders Forum.
After losing the PDP ticket it took Atiku almost a year to come to terms with his failed bid to clinch the PDP presidential ticket. Rather than give every support to the winner of the PDP primary contest, Atiku stayed away and was never part of the PDP presidential campaign effort. This further alienated him from events in the party. This unofficial and self-imposed alienation has kept Atiku on the sideline in the affairs of the party since he came back.
Political observers in Abuja are of the view that Atiku is already reading the handwriting on the wall that getting the PDP ticket in 2015 will be mission impossible since he is not “fully back” to the PDP fold and has been operating as someone who has nothing at stake in the affairs of the party. Conscious of the politically suicidal import of this “siddon look” attitude, Atiku woke up some months back and for the first time in several years, played very important role in the victory of PDP in Adamawa State during the recent bye-election. With the moral and financial support of Atiku and the PDP National Chairman, PDP was able to defeat the candidate of the KOWA Party that Governor Murtala Nyako sponsored against the PDP candidate.
It is believed that while Atiku is making inroad into Adamawa PDP the same cannot be said in almost all the other states where his supporters that followed him to ACN have not been able regain control of PDP structures they lost when they followed Atiku to ACN. Since most of the delegates that will determine who will get the PDP ticket are the ones in control of the party structure, it is said that Atiku will likely use the PDM as a fallback position if he loses the PDP presidential ticket in 2015. However, some PDP leaders who craved anonymity were unanimous that Atiku will be putting the last nail on his political coffin if he dumps PDP again for any reason. They are of the view that there is no magic that could make a yet-to-be registered PDM win 2015 election even if it goes into alliance with other political parties and the PDP may decide to shut its doors permanently against Atiku if he dumps the party for the second time. Atiku has already said he will remain in PDP even though his supporters are moving to PDM. Events between now and 2015 will tell if he has learnt any lesson from what befell him for dumping PDP for ACN in his quest to occupy Nigeria’s equivalent of the Oval office.