T
he strength of every registered political party involved in any democratic process all over the world is measured by the number of wards, council areas, municipalities, constituencies, states etc it controls, even if it is not the party in control of the central government.
The Nigeria case is not an exception. Even as the Independent Electoral Commission, INEC, acting within the limitations of its power, had verified the performance chat of over fifty registered political parties that participated in the last General Election of 2011, in the country and thereafter came up with the penalty to deregister some of them that didn’t meet up with the requirements of even winning a ward, going by the electoral act and guidelines for party registration /deregistration.
The saying in politics which states, ’There is no permanent friend or enemy in politics, is the basic reason why many of the ‘deregistered parties and weak parties’ with their political activists, ahead of the 2015 general elections have collapsed into some of the strong parties, like the ruling party, PDP, APGA, AD, LP etc, while major political actors of the Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN, All Nigeria Peoples Party, ANPP, and Congress for Progress Change, CPC, brainstormed and united under one political umbrella, the All Progressives Congress, APC, which they have successfully registered as a political party, qualified to participate in any election conducted in the country for now, just as they featured in the November 16, Anambra State governorship election.
With a prior knowledge that the INEC hammer will after all fall on every political party that failed to win any election in the general election, the aligned parties and the other strong ones have started to work and strategise on how to win elections in the 2015 general election, or improve on the records of their performance. One area of the country where the struggle for power is playing out now is in the five states of the South East zone of the country, comprising Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu and Imo states.
The matured political atmosphere obtained in the zone has allowed the various political holders of these parties to start plotting on how to win the hearts and support of majority of the votes of the electorates of the zone in 2015 elections. Political activities and events around the South East zone in the past three months attest to this.
To start with, the recent Anambra State governorship election conducted on November 16, witnessed vigorous campaigns from the political parties that participated, especially from the major four, namely; APGA, which is the ruling party in the state, the PDP, the Labour Party anchored by the Dr Ifeanyi Ubah, the oil magnate, and the newly registered APC. These Four parties seriously desired to capture the seat of power of Anambra State at all cost, as a means of making a breakthrough into the South East zone of the country. But special thanks to the effective service and network of the nation’s security agencies that lived up to the challenges, if not the state would have boiled with violence more than the present media attacks and counter attacks by various stakeholders of the respective parties.
The ruling party, APGA, in the state was faced with the great implication of fizzling out if it fails to retain the state. This is predicated on the fact that Anambra State is the home of APGA and the only state controlled by the party, at the moment. The two major stakeholders of the party, who are also indigenes of the state, Governor Peter Obi and Sir Victor Umeh, were lucky to have resolved their political differences in time, to embark on a collective grassroots campaign together with their flag bearer, Dr Willie Obiano. This tactic paid off, as the party’s candidate, Dr Willie Obiano, scored the highest vote, with a wide margin, in the results released so far by INEC.
The PDP which initially ruled the state at the beginning of 4th republic politics in 1999; urged to recapture the state back, in their ambition to recapture the control of five states of the South East zone, as was the case in 1999, fell of target based on the unresolved crisis of who should be the candidate of the party, less than two weeks to the election. The campaign visit of the party led by President Goodluck Jonathan to Onitsha and that of the vice president, Alhaji Namadi Sambo to Awka, the state capital, barely a week to the elections, did not perform any magic for Comrade Tony Nwoye, the PDP candidate to win. The party came second, going by the results declared by INEC so far.
More than the PDP, it seemed the APC strategised well enough to win the November 16, Anambra State election, at all cost. If not, what might have informed the decision of its power brokers in the person of Mallam el-Rufai, to relocate to Anambra State on the eve of the election? Equally, the strong man of Lagos politics, Bola Tinubu, deployed his arsenals, Governor Rochas Okorocha of Imo State, who had since jettisoned APGA, the platform under which he won election as Imo State governor, for APC. There is still a controversy surrounding the mission and objective of the hundreds of alleged election observers from Osun State that were caught while receiving lectures, prior to the Anambra governorship election, at a hotel in Owerri.
But amidst all these plots, their candidate, Senator Chris Ngige, was rated to have come 3rd in the election, though Ngige has since rejected the result. Personally, the Managing Director/Chief executive of Capitol oil, Dr Ifeanyi Ubah, with the influence of his wealth, nurtured the Labour Party, LP, to make enviable impact in the Anambra State governorship election. Pundits hold the view that without Dr Ifeanyi Ubah, and his financial prowess, Labour Party would have belonged to the minors if it had featured any candidate in the election.
The experience of the Anambra Governorship election, which from every indication will go to APGA, is a failed test for other parties, especially the PDP and APC, in their bid to capture the South East zone of the country, ahead of 2015 general election. The APC, which is nursing the ambition to defeat PDP at the presidential election and form the next government at the center, needs to make inroad in the South East zone, so as to capture some of the states of the zone. Apart from loosing its dream of capturing Anambra State, the APC is also finding it a hard nut to crack in other states in the South East zone, except Imo State, the strong hold of Governor Rochas Okorocha.
Governor Okorocha who had earlier initiated contact points for APC party awareness creation in every council area of Imo State, is finding it very difficult to sell the party outside Imo State.
Nigerian Pilot gathered from sources that the Abia State government refused and frustrated his, Rochas, plans to visit the commercial town of Aba on political campaign, about two months ago. The idea was to start psyching up the millions of residents of Aba Township to imbibe APC ideologies, Nigerian Pilot gathered from sources.
In Enugu State, the APC has remained a newspaper tiger. There are no facilities on ground for holding forums or meetings for its members. One of the national leaders of the party, who comes from Enugu State, Mr. Osita Okechukwu, champions the cause of media blitz in the state capital for the party. To an extent, that has kept the party in existence, with merely no structure and viable offices. The case is the same in Ebonyi State which is virtually a PDP controlled and dominated state just like Enugu State. The APC really need a lot of home work to do, if it must succeed in its’ bid to make impact or capture any of the South East states in 2015 general election.
For the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, it is obvious it will not regain its initial record of one hundred percent control of the South East zone. Going by the fact that APGA is likely to retain Anambra State, after the supplementary election conducted on November 30, by INEC. PDP had, prior to now, won the entire five states in the South East zone. In fact, political data proved that the South East zone more than the other zones of the country delivered en bloc for the ruling party. This result dwindled with the coming of APGA, which was founded by Chief Chekwas Okorie and popularised with the influence and charisma of late Dim Chukwuemeka Odimegwu Ojukwu, the ex-Biafra warlord, and also, the formation of Peoples Progressive Alliance party, PPA, founded by Dr Orji Uzor Kalu, former Abia State governor. The PDP eventually lost Anambra State to APGA through Peter Obi’s persistence judiciary struggle in 2006.
Also, the former governor Abia State, Dr Orji Uzor Kalu, used his fame to install Dr Theodore Orji under the platform of PPA, in the 2007 general election. But the good thing for PDP in the state is that both former Governor Orji Uzor Kalu and Governor Theodore have returned back to the PDP fold, thereby making Abia State, a PDP controlled state once again.
The struggle for the control of South East zone in 2015, from every indication will be witnessed in Imo State. Governor Okorocha who won election under APGA platform before his present romance with APC, will be gunning for his second tenure on the platform of APC. His mother party, APGA, under the national leadership of Sir Victor Umeh, has boasted that they will flush Okorocha from the Owerri government house in 2015. The statement is not an empty boast. Nigerian Pilot observed that the Umeh led APGA has maintained intimate working relationship with the Agbasos political family in the state, who are known to be the original frontiers of APGA in Imo State, but the governorship ticket was conceded to Okorocha, who joined APGA at the twilight of the 2011 general elections. That will amount to a great threat to Okorocha’s second coming. Equally, the PDP in its effort to recover its initial control of the South East zone, which it lost to Governor Okorocha with APGA ticket in 2011, will approach the battle to recover Imo State with seriousness.
From every indication, the battle to capture Imo State by PDP, APGA and APC will shift to Imo State ahead of 2015 general election, just as at it was hot in Anambra State.