- How States will vote
Should the forthcoming presidential election hold today, incumbent President, Goodluck Jonathan, is very highly favoured to win, a survey by Nigerian Pilot across the country has revealed. Instructively, the emerging trend will crstalise on Saturday, March 28, 2015 when the election is cheduled to hold. Apart from Jonathan who is the flagbearer of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, no fewer than 13 other political parties are presenting candidates for the same office. Earlier reports indicate, however, that former military dictator and candidate of the opposition All Progressives Congress, APC, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari presents the closest opposition to Jonathan. The latter was also Jonathan’s opponent in 2011. The latest survey by this newspaper over the weekend still underscores the foregoing. According to findings by Nigerian Pilot, apart from the incumbency factor and visible achievements of the Jonathan administration since 2011, his sincerity and overall patriotic nature among other positive features are going for him. Besides, the spread and reach of his party are all working in his favour. Unlike many other survey reports that premise their findings on religion and ethnic factors, there appears to be a form of unanimity in the land that “for the future peace and progress of the country, voting Jonathan to complete his second term as President given his record achievements vis-à-vis his predecessors’ as well as the time-honoured rotation of the office between the north and the south of the country, a second term for Jonathan is key.” Nigerian Pilot survey reports from the states indicate the following: South-South This the native geo-political zone of the President. While Jonathan is projected to sweep Bayelsa state’s votes, the other states in the geo-political zone; Edo, Delta, Akwa Ibom, Cross River and Rivers are traditional PDP states and will vote for the party. They demonstrated it in 2011. Recent developments notwithstanding, the outcome of the election come Saturday is not likely to be of much consequence. Our survey shows that Jonathan will record an overwhelming victory against Buhari in the zone. He is likely to perform in the component states as follows: Akwa Ibom 70% Bayelsa 80% Cross River 70% Delta 80% Edo 60% Rivers 60% South-East Like it was in 2011, the South East is projected to once more vote massively for Jonathan. According to our survey findings, reminiscences of Buhari’s “sins” against Igbos before and during his military interregnum as well as “his many several not-too-pleasant antics which present him as anti-Igbo and anti-Christian to the average Igbo man will work against his victory. As for Jonathan, though the South East still asks for more developmental projects from the administration, majority of them are rooting for the president as shown below: Abia 80% Anambra 70% Ebonyi 60% Enugu 80% Imo 70% South-West In the South West where the APC holds forth given the fact that its notable national leaders hail from the zone, Jonathan is favoured to grab more than the mandatory 25per cent of votes cast to record a win in each of the component states no thanks to the credibility issues surrounding APC’s key national leaders that have since caused many to query the party’s agenda in throwing up Buhari as its flagbearer but with allegedly corrupt party men surrounding him. Besides, the strong grassroots presence and influence of Governors Ayodele Fayose of Ekiti state and his Ondo state colleague, Dr. Olusegun Mimiko is really catching on not just in their respective states, but across the region allowing for the following likely outcome come Saturday: Ekiti 80% Lagos 50% Ogun 50% Ondo 70% Osun 50% Oyo 50% North Central In the 2011 poll, Jonathan roundly beat Buhari in this zone. This year, the poll result is most likely going to be same if not bettered by Jonathan. Apart from issues of religion that have made the region largely pro-Jonathan, since the second Republic, the zone also called the Middle Belt region have refused to follow the core north blindly as they see themselves as being convenient to be used and dumped by the core north immediately after every election. Our survey report indicates the same outcome at next Saturday’s presidential poll as follows: Benue 70% Kogi 60% Kwara 50% Nasarawa 50% Niger 50% Plateau 75% FCT 70% North West This is the geo-political zone of the APC presidential candidate; expectedly permutations would favour him. But our survey underscores the opposite. While Buhari is expected to make some impact here, the Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso grouse against his emergence as APC flagbearer touting him as the north’s candidate is still causing a yawning division in the fold of the party in the zone and this is working in Jonathan’s favour by way of expected protest votes. However while Jonathan may get the constitunal requirement of 25% in each of the states, having landslide victory may be difficult. Hence, the projected outcome for Jonathan in this zone is as follows: Jigawa 30% Kano 50% Katsina 50% Kebbi 60% Sokoto 30% Zamfara 25% Kaduna 50% North East From our survey findings, this zone will most likely post a Buhari edge for his presidential bid. But it ends there as states like Bauchi, Borno and Yobe in the region are more likely to post a “Too-close-to-call” result at the end of voting come Saturday. Recent efforts by the administration in the anti-insurgency war may well curry for Jonathan more votes than being projected. At press time however, below was the survey report: Adamawa 60% Bauchi 23% Borno 30% Gombe 70% Taraba 60% Yobe 25%